Transport Modelling Forum

Transport modelling professionals often say that modelling is an art, not a science. We accept that the representation of complex and dynamic systems as mathematical models involves simplifications and assumptions, which lead to uncertainties about the outputs from models. The same can be said about the impacts of decisions that modellers make about the software they choose to use to quantify the impacts of policies or schemes. By choosing a microsimulation approach, or a particular demand model form, implicitly we make assumptions about which aspects of reality deserve specific attention, and subsequently this may affect the calculated benefits of interventions.

In addition, there is substantial uncertainty about the way in which the transport system, the economy, the urban form and the population’s values may change over a typical 30-60 year assessment period. Ideally, our models would be able to account for this, and quantify somehow the success of policies or investment under such uncertain future conditions.

This year, the 3rd Annual Transport Modelling Forum, we will assess uncertainty in our model work in a number of ways. Well-known speakers will stimulate the audience with their views on the importance of dealing with uncertainty in model applications. A separate debate between two respected professionals will address whether our models should become simpler and more transparent, or if they need to become more complex, to deal with all behavioural aspects. And we will ask software providers to discuss in an open forum how their product would be able to handle typical problems faced by professionals in practice. This action-packed programme will be supported as in previous years by an exhibition of products and services.

Who should attend:

Main users of model results in policy and decision-making who want to update their

knowledge of what is done elsewhere. Those responsible for using models directly who want to improve their existing toolkit. Those who develop models for a living and want to ensure that their clients are provided with acceptable and effective solutions.