Commercial vehicles production remains at high level

With only three weeks to go until the start of the 62nd IAA Commercial Vehicles Show, production levels in the industry remain encouragingly stable. Despite having two working days fewer than August 2007, last month yielded an output of more than 40,000 units, down by a mere one percent on production figures for the prior year period. Adjusted for the lower number of working days, production in fact rose by eight percent. To date this year, output of vans and heavy trucks (over six tons) is up by 11 percent and nine percent, respectively.

New registrations have also remained relatively stable, with the total for vans declining slightly by three percent in August and the number of heavy trucks, by contrast, increasing 18 percent, both adjusted for the lower number of working days. To date, the number of new registrations of commercial vehicles over six tons this year has matched the previous year's high level, while new registrations of commercial vehicles under six tons have risen by six percent.

The recent upturn in the economy as a whole has already passed its peak, with the ifo business climate index recording a downward trend over the last few months and companies now assessing their business position as weaker than in 2007. Given these circumstances, it is to be expected that commercial vehicle manufacturers would be reporting a slowdown in orders. Nevertheless, compared to other periods in the past, the level of incoming orders still remains exceptionally high. Van orders for the first eight months of the year were down by a mere four percent on the same period last year, and orders for commercial vehicles over six tons were down 27 percent compared to the extremely high volume of the previous year. Despite this decline, domestic orders for heavy trucks during the first eight months of the year still matched the level achieved for the same period in 2005, whereas foreign orders were 25 percent higher.

Thanks to strong demand, primarily from eastern Europe, exports for the first eight months of this year rose by 13 percent in the vans sector and eight percent in the heavy trucks sector. Due to the fewer working days and a decline in capital goods investment in important export markets, exports of vans and of commercial vehicles over six tons in August were down 14 percent and 19 percent, respectively. Adjusted for the lower number of working days, exports of commercial vehicles below six tons and of commercial vehicles over six tons were down five percent and 11 percent, respectively, on the volume posted for the same period last year.